Developing a Marketing Calendar

When's the best time to develop a marketing calendar for the year? As they say, there's no time like the present. By Al Lautenslager
January 31, 2007

Just because we're approaching February doesn't mean it's too late to plan your marketing for the year. Jay Levinson, my Guerrilla Marketing in 30 Days co-author says there are two best times to develop a marketing plan: right now and whenever your business started. Since we can’t go back in time, let's focus on right now.

Marketing is complicated. To make effective use of its many strategies and components, you have to first plan them out, then stay organized and consistent in implementing your plan. A marketing calendar is the best way to organize your marketing activity; the calendar also serves as a working document you can revise and update throughout the plan year.

A marketing calendar doesn’t have to be fancy. I recommend a simple spreadsheet matrix. Across the top x-axis, I place column headings representing the months of the year. Down the y-axis, or the first left-hand column, I list each individual marketing initiative, event or activity I'll use during the plan year.

For instance, if I'm going to do a press release every other month starting in February, I would put an X in the February, April, June, August, October and December columns. If I were going to issue a print newsletter once a month, each monthly column would have an X in it for that item.

How do you know which activities to include in your calendar? Brainstorm all the marketing ideas that make sense for your plan year but keep in mind that you can't do everything. Balance your marketing workload with the other things you need to do for your business. Plan for what you can do completely, not halfway. Also plan what you feel comfortable with, emotionally and financially. Prioritize accordingly, then place your ideas in your matrix.

Using a marketing calendar allows you to do four things with your marketing:

1. It organizes, categorizes and prioritizes your marketing initiatives and activities.
   
   
2. It allows you to spot "bunches" in your marketing activity. Too many X's close together might indicate the need to spread out your activity. It's generally accepted, though, that there are natural bunches that occur as a result of seasonality in your business and your customers' buying habits. Many retail operations market heavily in the third quarter, for instance, and bunch up marketing activity in anticipation for the fourth-quarter holiday season.
   
   
3. It offers a way for you to spot gaps in your marketing activity. Too much time in between the X's in your activities leaves customers and prospects untouched. Your goal with marketing is to achieve top-of-mind awareness. Consistency is key here, as is repetition. Don’t have gaps in your marketing.
   
   
4. It allows you to more easily evaluate your marketing. At the end of the year, the quarter or any other period of time you specify, grade the individual activity and initiative items. You can use a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being spectacular, or you can use a simple A, B or C grading system. If your particular initiative worked, grade it high. If it was moderately successful, give it a midlevel grade, and if it didn’t work, give it a low rating. Now here's the real value of this activity: When you plan the next period’s marketing, repeat what worked or what you graded highly. Fix, modify or tweak the marketing that kind of worked or that was graded at a midlevel, and eliminate the marketing that didn’t work at all.

That’s all there really is to planning your marketing with a marketing calendar. Do what works for your business. Plan it quarterly if that's easier for you than doing it monthly. Once you establish your marketing plan, keep it up on a regular basis, just like paying your bills. Consistent marketing wins out. Planned consistent marketing with effective implementation wins out even more. And if you didn't start back when you launched your business, start now.

entrepreneur.com

The Real Value Of Vista

Microsoft's new Windows will allow you to make the most of your digital media.

When Vista finally hits the shelves on Jan. 29, most consumers won't have a clue why they should buy it. Never mind the fanfare it will receive as Microsoft Chairman William H. Gates III formally launches the new Windows from the stage of the Nokia Theater in New York. Or the hundreds of millions of dollars the software giant plans to spend through June to market it. With all of Vista's many new features, Microsoft seems incapable of really zeroing in on the handful that will truly change the way consumers use their PCs.

Not that Vista won't be a step forward. Just think back to what your PC was like five years ago when Windows xp launched. It was still the era of the Blue Screen of Death, that infamous window that popped up to say your PC had just crashed. Windows XP improved PC reliability. But in retrospect, the real breakthrough for consumers (those who didn't already have a Mac, that is) was XP's ability to help digitize their entertainment. Windows XP made it a snap to stash music, photos, and video online.

Windows XP pretty much stopped right there, though. Microsoft Corp. made it easy to rip a CD to your PC's hard drive. But it took Apple Inc., with its iPod, to figure out how to actually take advantage of that digitization and make it easy for consumers to listen to their digital tunes. And forget about photos. Consumers have snapped scads of photos—2 billion in 2006 alone. But they remain trapped on hard drives of PCs running Windows XP. It's not all that different than storing snapshots in shoeboxes under the bed.

Enter Vista. Let's go out on a limb and suggest that for all the knocks against Microsoft and the jokes about how long it took to crank this thing out, Vista will in time be recognized as a leap past XP. And not just because it is far more secure and boots up more quickly. When consumers look back a few years from now, the Vista improvement they may be most likely to cite is the ability to actually use all that digital content they've been accumulating over the years.

The result of Microsoft's efforts is a collection of devices and services that takes Windows a step closer to truly being a digital hub. Think once again about those photos. Microsoft has worked with a handful of partners that have developed digital picture frames that connect to PCs over a wireless network.

Sounds geeky. But Microsoft has made it easy for PCs to recognize the frames on a home network, so all users need to do is turn on the frame to connect with it. Then, from their PC, they can select which pictures to display on the frames scattered around the house. "A lot of the success of Vista will be up to the partners like us to make it dead simple," says Jesse Grindeland, director of sales for i-mate plc, a Dubai company whose $299 Momento 10-inch frame goes on sale when Vista launches.

FREEING THE MUSIC
Another gadget, the Sonos Digital Music System, was wowing gearheads long before Vista came along. The Sonos system lets customers shoot music wirelessly from PCs to speakers throughout the house. And it worked well, except for music purchased online that contains copy protection preventing it from playing on multiple devices. Windows Media 11, the music technology inside Vista, fixes that, letting you stream copy-protected content throughout the house.

None of this was easy for Microsoft, which has always done better with business than consumers. "We're really focused on creating a consumer brand for Microsoft," says Brad Brooks, general manager in the Windows Client group. Microsoft's critics will point out that many Vista features are already in Apple's Mac OS X. Even Vista's new method of recovering old versions of files, with the drab moniker Volume Shadow Copy, trails Apple's much flashier Time Machine technology.

But for most PC users, these improvements will matter regardless of who had them first, says Michael Gartenberg, research director at JupiterKagan Inc. After all, Vista, like its predecessor, will continue to outsell the Mac by 20 to 1.

Businessweek

Mobile Web - A Completely New Ball Game

Rich Skrenta feels that it's time for the Winner To Take All. Google has won in what he calls the Third Age of Computing.

IBM and Microsoft were in that position in the two prior Computing Ages, but now Google owns the Internet. David Beisel is not convinced and feels a Fourth Age of Computing is on the way where Google will need to get involved in a new ball game. That new ball game is the Mobile Web.

The Mobile Web has even greater economic potential than the traditional Web as visited by desktop PCs. .. and despite the best efforts of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) with its Mobile Web Initiative, it may not end up as they would wish as One Web. There is a fundamental disconnect between agreeing Standards and competing in a fast moving technology where there are mega-bucks at stake. If in addition, the Standards are tough to apply in order to achieve that One Web, then in practice it may not work out even if many would wish to apply the Standards.

The other factor is that many involved have lived through the Internet tidal wave and may see all this from their Desktop PC perspective. That One Web should just spread out so that it becomes the Ubiquitous Web. Doesn't that seem a natural evolution to follow? Well natural evolution is fine provided we don't run into a disruptive technology that changes all the ground rules. It may even be so cataclysmic that it deserves the title, transformational technology. Some observers would apply that description to the whole Mobile world.

That is at the heart of Mobile Persuasion @ Stanford University with its tagline, "Changing people's beliefs & behaviors with mobile technology". Cameron Moll summarizes another very important article by Tomi T Ahonen entitled, "Putting 2.7 billion in context: Mobile phone users". That would certainly confirm that Mobile Phones represent a transformational technology. Ahonen's final paragraph points out the urgency in all this.

Whatever your business or interest, going mobile now will give you a competitive advantage. But going mobile next year will be a desperation move to stay in the game. Don't miss out on this. Mobile is the biggest opportunity going. Where is your business? Where is your mobile strategy?

The fact that Google may have been the winner in the Third Age of Computing is no guarantee of success in a completely changed world. There are already some powerful entities in the Mobile world. Google may already be Celling Out (free subscription required), but that doesn't yet seem to be showing results. Even a Google-positive article, Hooked on Google (free subscription required) showing Google is leaving Microsoft in the dust, had a sting in the tail.

In brand new areas, like mobile devices that connect to the Internet, Microsoft is holding its own against Google. According to Telephia, a research firm, 3.7 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers are visiting Microsoft's mobile Web sites, compared to 3.5 percent for Google.

But even in this area, Microsoft is still No. 2. Kanishka Agarwal, vice president of mobile content for Telephia, said Yahoo is No. 1 with 5.9 percent of subscribers due to the popularity of Yahoo mail.

It will be interesting to see what develops during 2007 in this fast-changing Mobile world.

End of service announcement

Free SkypeOut™ calls to US and Canadian phones ended December 31st.

After December 31st SkypeOut calls to US and Canada will be charged at the standard SkypeOut rate of ¢2.1 USD (or ¢2.4 CAD) per minute.

You can also get a full year of unlimited calls to any phone in the US and Canada. Get more information.

Skype Means Business - Saving Money is Just the Start

January 25, 2007 – Skype today announced it has taken Skype for Business one step further in response to continuous demand by businesses all over the world to use Skype™ to communicate with customers and colleagues. Skype for Business has proven to be incredibly popular because firms save both money and time as Skype is so easy to use and a convenient way of keeping in touch.

Business users have always been part of the Skype family and make up over 30% of Skype’s global community, now numbering at 171 million. In a recent survey of 250 businesses using Skype, 95% claimed to have saved money and 80% claimed that using Skype increased employee productivity.

One particular firm, Lewis & Hickey, a group of leading international architects that has recently installed Skype across its offices in the UK and Prague, claims that since making its first Skype call, it has saved up to 7.6 % on its standard call charges and wants to reach a cost reduction of 50% of its total telephony expenditure in the near future.

Benoit Mareschal, Director, Business Development at Lewis & Hickey, comments: “We have clients and teams across the UK and abroad and like many creative businesses we need to share ideas and keep in touch with one another. This can come at a high cost. We wanted to find a way to communicate but pay less for the privilege. Since we started using Skype, the amount we’re spending on international mobile and landline phone calls has dropped significantly. Skype creates a human bridge between technology and personable communication.”

The survey also revealed that 62% of the businesses communicate better with customers on Skype and 76% said they work more closely with colleagues because Skype is so easy to use.

Benoit Mareschal agrees, “Now we have Skype, the ability to talk with one another has increased enormously. People used to rely on email but with Skype you can get an immediate response to a query without disturbing the whole office – especially if you are using the instant chat feature. You can see when people are online, ask your question and carry on with what you were doing.”

With additional new features unveiled today, Skype has also made it easier for businesses to install and manage Skype. Skype can be easily installed on multiple computers using the Windows Installer package (commonly known as MSI), giving IT Administrators greater control over how Skype communications traffic runs across their corporate networks.

An online control panel enables companies to allocate individual users with Skype credits that can be used to make cheap SkypeOut™ calls to traditional landline phones or mobiles and provides a consolidated view of what is being spent.

Meanwhile, Skype is working collaboratively too. Together with its partners it has been working on a range of new business productivity tools, called Extras: these include the Convenos web conference and collaboration service, a package called Unyte which enables users to share the view off their PC desktop and a Skype-enabled call-centre offering from ACD.

Skype

eBay to end controversial practice of "extending" auctions?

Some very observant sellers noticed this subtle change to the eBay "fee circumvention" policy section that seems to spell the end of Extenders (more on this later)->

Extension of Auctions - eBay listings ('auctions') have a fixed duration. eBay may on rare occasions (for example, as the result of a site outage) extend the duration of an auction. Extension of auction duration by a seller, via either manual actions or the use of automated tools, is not permitted. Extension of auctions by a seller for any reason is not only a form of fee avoidance, but also harms the finding experience for buyers.

Here's a quick background and tutorial on Extenders if this topic is new to you. A now-defunct company, Ethical worked with a large seller to productize an idea he had found to be a winning strategy for improving sell-through rates.

eBay has a way you can manually "extend" an auction if it hasn't had bids and it is less than 12hrs from close, so what Ethical did was automate this. The way it works is you set your auctions (could be fixed price or BIN too) for 1 day. Then at close to 12hrs to the listing's original duration ending (11hrs into a 24hr listing), the software checks the listing and if there are no bids asks eBay to change the duration to 3 days. Then again, this process happens all the way to 7 or 10 days (if the seller is willing to pay the additional 10 day fee).

Why does this help sell-through? Well, the eBay indexing system doesn't really prioritize revised items (its busy handling the millions of fresh new listings every day - correctly so) and thus when you employ the strategy of extension listed above, your item shows up in eBay's search engine (which remember is listed by default as 'ending first") up to 5 times (1/3/5/7/10).

Once Ethical went under, a plethora of these tools hit the market at near-free prices. Nobody but eBay knows how widespread the practice is, but if you were to survey 100 top sellers in each category, I think you would find 15-30 of them utilizing Extenders.

If you want to know what an extended listing looks like, there's typically the word "revised" in parens next to the description as a link. When you click it, you can see that one of the revisions is "listing duration". Here's an example.

eBay's documentation lists extenders now under fee circumvention (I'm guessing the argument is that you receive the same exposure from one listing that others pay for with 4-5) and search manipulation.

This is just starting to ripple through the community and as you would predict, sellers that utilize extenders are a) confused (no official announcement, so is this coming soon or for real now? b) upset that the benefit of Extenders is going away.

Conversely sellers that haven't known about the Extenders are intrigued by the concept and sometimes upset they weren't in the loop.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming weeks.

eBay Strategies

Notes from the eBay Top Seller Summit

From Kevin “Sleep is for the Uninspired” Harmon

InflatableMadness.com

Hi guys,

I just returned from the Top Seller Summit in San Francisco. This is eBay's second annual e-comm conference - they invite the top 200 or so sellers on eBay for a 2 day conference.

It's a good event to attend because most of eBays top brass are there and mingling about, so I was able to have many quality conversations with the people at eBay who influence decision and direction.

Here's my main takeaways from the conference:

1. eBay has realized that there are some forces working against them now. They are beginning to acknowledge the level of fraud and to seriously study the growing attrition of buyers. The question is: Can eBay right the ship in time?

2. eBay will be working hard on improving the buying experience - they are rolling out a more detailed feedback 2.0 and working on improvements to the user interface.

3. eBay wants to make eBay fun again. ebay matchups is a good example of this.


I have always said that no matter how I feel about what eBay does as a company, I have never met an eBay employee who I didn't like - to a person they are smart and friendly. The conference was a nice jug of eBay coolade that is appreciated by us sellers.

Now, if the free eBay bag I received just didn't cost $500,000, we'd be in business.

Ha!

Kevin

StartupNation

eBay is introducing Feedback 2.0

This Wednesday at the EBAY ecommerce forum, Bill Cobb announced Feedback 2.0. Feedback 2.0, which we'll be launching in pilot markets next month, allows buyers to rate transactions on item description, communication, shipping time, and shipping & handling charges. The average of each of the Detailed Seller Ratings is displayed on the seller’s Feedback Profile page. Perhaps it is just me, but this sounds little cumbersome.

In addition, old feedback will be archived. Later this year, EBAY will be archiving all but the last 24 months of feedback history. User's total score will remain, but the percent will be based on just the last 2 years of activity. All comments older than this will be archived. This, on the other hand, is a welcome change.

Only eBay

Cell phone didn't ignite California man

Fire investigators in California now say a cell phone did not cause a fire that severely burned a man last weekend.

The Vallejo Fire Department said on Thursday that it has ruled out a malfunctioning cell phone as the cause of a fire that on Saturday night caused second- and third-degree burns on more than 50 percent of Luis Picaso's body.

Earlier this week, fire officials believed that the Nokia 2125i cellular phone found in the right pocket of Picaso, 59, was the cause of the fire. But when engineers from Nokia flew to Vallejo and tested the phone, they discovered that the electronic circuitry in the phone was undamaged and that the battery was still functioning.

William Tweedy, an investigator and public information officer for the Vallejo Fire Department, was present when the phone was tested.

"When we reinstalled the battery, the phone still booted up," Tweedy said. "If the battery had malfunctioned or the phone had short-circuited, it wouldn't have worked anymore. And it did, so we could rule out the phone as an ignition source."

Tweedy said the only other possible way the fire could have started was from some kind of smoking materials such as cigarettes, matches or a lighter. Even though none of these materials were found at the scene of the fire, Tweedy said the fire was so intense, it likely destroyed all evidence.

At the time of the fire, Picaso was wearing nylon and polyester clothing, which is highly flammable and likely would have caused the fire to spread quickly. Picaso had also been sitting in a plastic chair, which also would have intensified the blaze, Tweedy said.

Picaso remains in critical but stable condition at U.C. Davis Medical Center in Sacramento.

Cell phone batteries have been blamed for other fires in the past. In July 2004, a young woman in Ontario, Calif., suffered second-degree burns when her Kyocera cell phone burst into flames while in her back pocket. In December, NTT DoCoMo, one of Japan's largest mobile operators, recalled cell phone batteries used in its third-generation handsets because they could generate excessive heat that could short-circuit the phone.

News.com

Skype Takes One Step Further With New Pricing Strategy

Disruptive pricing gives Skype users more value and choice.

January 18, 2007 – Skype, the global Internet communications company, today announced its new global pricing structure which offers a simple, convenient and cost-effective way for consumers worldwide to call landlines and mobiles over the Internet. The new pricing structure complements the foundation of Skype’s success in letting anyone in the world talk for free, from one Skype software account to another.

The pricing structure is the latest in a series of new steps Skype is taking to give consumers a choice of easy-to-understand, value-based Internet communications packages. Initially focused on Europe, Skype’s new pricing strategy will roll out worldwide during 2007.

When launched in full, the pricing strategy consists of a premium subscription package (Skype Pro), one feature of which removes per-minute charges for SkypeOut calls to domestic landlines and includes a small connection fee.

“People like using Skype to make free calls from one Skype account to another but more and more they are choosing our paid for products that offer excellent value. As a result of this, we’re introducing a new pricing strategy today that will include a premium package. This premium package builds on the success we’ve had in North America and the UK with subscription-based calling promotions. It offers our users more for less because they can buy additional Skype paid for products but for a smaller cost,” said Stefan Öberg, General Manager, Skype Telecoms.

As a part of Skype’s premium package the global dialing rate to a number of countries is also reduced. The first phase of the SkypeOut pricing structure, effective from 13.00 CET on Thursday January 18th 2007, includes a reduction in global dialing rates to 0.017 € per minute for: Czech Republic (including Prague), Guam, Hungary (including Budapest), Israel (including Jerusalem), Luxembourg, Malaysia (including Kuala Lumpur), Puerto Rico and both Alaska and Hawaii in the United States.

For some countries, this represents a reduction of up to 65 per cent.

Skype also confirmed today that its previously announced connection fee rates, applicable worldwide, are now effective. The connection fee is a straightforward set-up charge per call. The Skype Unlimited Calling plan in the U.S. and Canada and the Talk for Britain campaign in the UK do not include a connection fee for national calls.

The connection fee is 0.039 Euro, excl VAT or the equivalent in local currency.

Today Skype users around the world can make free voice and video calls to any other registered Skype users as well as send instant messages, transfer files and participate in Skypecasts which are live moderated conversations with up to 100 people.

Skype users can also take advantage of Skype’s premium calling features, including SkypeOut™ (calls from Skype to traditional landlines or mobiles), SkypeIn™ (a number which can be called from a normal phone anywhere in the world) and Skype Voicemail (takes calls when users are busy or offline).

As the world’s largest Internet communications community, Skype is committed to giving its users the ability to set their conversations free at home, at work and on the move. It is focused on further developing its ecosystem of more than 50 hardware partners and more than 150 Skype-certified devices to broaden the appeal of Skype to a wider base of users who want to use Skype away from the PC, no matter where they happen to be. This is especially true for Skype users who want to take advantage of the mobile Skype experience, which is already accessible to more than 5 million Skype users on over 120 different Windows Mobile Smartphones and pocket PC devices.

For more information, please go to http://www.skype.com/products/skypepro/

Connection Fee Rates Rates Based on Currency* (excl. VAT)

• Australian Dollar (AUD) 0.059
• Brazilian Real (BRL) 0.09
• British Pound (GBP) 0.029
• Canadian Dollar (CAD) 0.059
• Danish Krone (DKK) 0.29
• Euro (EUR) 0.039
• Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) 0.39
• Japanese Yen (JPY) 4.9
• Norwegian Krone (NOK) 0.29
• Polish Zloty (PLN) 0.149
• Korean Won (KRW) 49
• Swedish Krona (SEK) 0.39
• Swiss Franc (CHF) 0.059
• Taiwan Dollar (TWD) 1.6
• US Dollar (USD) 0.039

*If your currency is not listed, the Euro rate is applicable

About Skype Skype is the world’s fastest-growing Internet communication offering, allowing unlimited free voice, video and instant messaging communication between users of Skype Software. With over 136 million registered users, Skype is available in 28 languages and is used in almost every country around the world. Skype generates revenue through its premium offerings such as making and receiving calls to and from landline and mobile phones, voicemail, call forwarding and personalization including ringtones and avatars. Skype also has relationships with a growing network of hardware and software providers. Visit Skype at www.skype.com.

Skype is an eBay company (NASDAQ: EBAY). To learn more visit skype.com.

Access to a broadband Internet connection is required for Skype and all Skype Certified devices and accessories. Skype is not a replacement for your traditional telephone service and cannot be used for emergency calling.

Skype, SkypeIn, SkypeOut, Skype Me, Skype Certified, Skypecasts, associated logos and the “S” symbol are trademarks of Skype Limited.

Skype

Google Phone To Challenge Apple IPhone?

Engadget is reporting that they have received information from an inside source with product information about the near-mythical Google branded cellular phone, which has been the topic of much speculation over recent months.

There's nothing like a juicy rumor to get the blood pumping in the cold of winter.

I'm not talking about wild speculation and unsubstantiated hearsay; I'm talking about that sort of gossip that you knew was true all along -- the kind that sends tinges of euphoria up your spine, enveloping you in the delight of a full blown "geekgasm" as the object of your desire edges closer to becoming reality.

Okay. Perhaps that's a bit melodramatic.

Nonetheless, I daresay that as news continues to leak concerning Google's venture into the mobile phone market, the fever-pitch among the masses will exponentially mount in a chorus of wonder and elation that will make the buzz surrounding the iPhone look like little more than after dinner conversation at your local senior citizen's center.

Okay, enough adoration, let's get to the nitty gritty details of the Google phone.

First off, it's rumored to be a collaboration between Google and Samsung, which runs contrary to previous speculation that the Silicon Valley juggernaut would partner with Orange to develop its branded mobile phone.

Tech Digest lays out some of the features that you can expect from the Google Phone:

It'll have built-in GPS, allowing Google Maps based navigation features, with a contact application that's a cross between Gmail, Google Talk and more traditional text messaging.

Engadget, who received the initial tip, lets us in on another interesting aspect of the phone that is leaving many scratching their heads:

According to our tipster, the device doesn't have any on-board storage. That's right, all your applications are served up over the network with new apps "attached" to your account via a web interface.

No onboard storage? If that's true, it tells me that Google plans to employ a massive network in order to support such a feature. Perhaps this explains why the company has been buying up so much dark fiber as of late?

None of this is confirmed; but as you have probably already surmised, I really don't care. Everyone and their sister has fallen all over themselves to heap loving spoonfuls of adoration onto the iPhone, and declare it the undisputed champion of mobile phones -- all before the device has even released. So, I'm just glad to see that there could potentially be another key player in the mobile phone arena.

Always remember, competition is a good thing.

Webpronews

LG's new phone resembles iPhone

South Korea's LG Electronics Co. said Thursday it will start selling next month a new mobile phone that incorporates a buttonless touch-screen resembling the much-hyped iPhone from Apple Inc.

LG's Prada Phone is being produced in partnership with the Italian fashion brand. It is set to go on sale in late February for 600 euros ($780) at mobile phone dealers and Prada stores in Britain, France, Germany and Italy, and comes to Asia in March.

The company did not announce its U.S. plans.

The no-button interface with the entire phone face covered by a touch-sensitive screen resembles the Apple iPhone, announced by the U.S. company earlier this month to much fanfare as an innovation that could shake up the industry.

Apple's iPhone is set for U.S. release in June and will cost $599 for the high-end model with 8 gigabytes of internal memory — the same as the LG model. Other markets will see the iPhone later this year and in 2008.

The LG phone has a wide-screen display and can play most popular digital music and video formats, and has a 2-megapixel camera like the iPhone. Its memory can be expanded with cards.

The iPhone allows Internet use also through regular wireless Wi-Fi networks, and has a full-featured Web browser.

The LG phone is 12 millimeters (0.47 inches) thick, just 0.4 millimeters (0.016 inches) more than the iPhone.

Being Accountable

I came across this wonderful post "Risk Management Made Easy…". Don't panic. It’s about ACCOUNTABILITY. I would like share with all of you ‘cause I think it’s very useful, you can definitely apply it to your eBay selling business.

Define accountability. Accountability is all about:
1. Assuming full responsibility for the consequences of one's behavior
2. Following through on commitments to buyers
3. Demonstrating reliability and dependability
4. Keeping the service promise
5. Admitting mistakes and taking responsibility for correcting

In other words, accountability simply means responsibility. Read the great write-up by N2Growth. Apply accountability to your eBay selling, automatically you will build up the trust, the positive ratings, the name and most importantly the sales.

eBay Talk

EEF: Bill Cobb keynote, post 4 (FEEDBACK 2.0!!)

Feedback is foundation of eBay. Love it or hate it, it has enabled eBay's success.

Explained retaliatory negs. Feedback is mostly right, but going to refine it to better meet needs of online shopper. For 2yrs been working on "Feedback 2.0". Lots of community feedback, etc.

Late next month (Feb), outside US are going to phase in FEEDBACK 2.0:

• Granularity/specificity - four new sub-categories.
  
  • Item description
  • Communication
  • Shipping time
  • S+H terms
• Positive feedback % will be based on last couple of yrs activity
  • Old negatives/positives will archive
  • Users see most recent (couple years)
  • This comes out in Spring
  • Will be very careful in how this rolls out
  • Testing Intl first (UK/AU/IT) late Feb

Conclusion
2007 will bring major changes to the buyer side - because eBay has to. More competition, drive more buyers to sellers.

Thanks sellers for all they do. Loves working with entrepreneurial sellers. Thanks to sellers from all at eBay.

eBay Strategies

EEF: Bill Cobb keynote, post 3 (T+S)

Highlighted how important T+S is at eBay. Bad guys are getting smarter, Pierre's vision is still solid, but the BASICALLY part is getting tougher.

Over 2000 employees in T+S fighting the battle vs. the bad guys. Due to this they are going to more actively protect buyers from fraud/bad experiences.

Safeguarding seller IDs for example (this stops fraudulent SCOs). So far fake SCOs are down 80-90%, may need to take additional steps to protect bidder IDs

Another way reducing bad buyer experience is adjusting the seller standards. Repeated information on excessive shipping, late item, INR, bad customer service - causes majority of bad user experiences on eBay.

Historically have allowed practically anyone to sell on eBay with few restrictions, going forward going to significantly raise the bar on who they allow to sell on eBay.

Not fair to the large % of good sellers that small % of bad sellers are driving away buyers.

Example: cross border trade restrictions they started in Q4.

Beginning this week, any new seller who wants to list in US/CA, must offer a safe payment method - paypal/CC.

In October, eliminated private feedback - used to suspend 60%+ of sellers with private feedback. Now they are transparent again.

In 07 there will be more details on how great sellers are advantaged and bad sellers are further restricted.

Counterfeiters - Bill highlighted the changes that have already been instituted here. They are closely monitoring the results, may do more here.

Last week announced doubling of coverage from Paypal protection program. ($1k-$2k on SNAD and INR, other transactions $200 for unqualified items - no processing fee). Buyers love this and sellers should too - makes a statement in confidence of the marketplace.

Shipping and Handling
Covered why it's bad.

Made some progress in 06 with active enforcement - started in June. Cited cell phone category - S+H is down 25% in that category.

Need to be more proactive - developing some product based solutions - sort by total cost, (editorial note: ebay express does this and best match does too) going forward the approach is going to be to put the right incentives into the product and reduce reliance on manual enforcement. No silver bullet, short of regulating, but they are going to keep at it until contained.

eBay Strategies

EEF: Bill Cobb keynote, post 2 (fun!)

(Bill Cobb keynote continued - post 2)

2007 initiatives

Taking an aggressive approach at T+S issues (S+H/etc.) Reigniting the core auction business - eBay is the heritage and will always be at the center of the experience. Fixed price sellers - that's less about pricing format and more about the entire site (so don't worry).

Improving buyer consideration is job #1 at eBay. In 06 intro'd IT campaign and it has worked - bringing buyers to eBay. (showed 3 IT commercials - kids getting in door, dollhouse/robot, alarm clock).

Last month made some changes (covered previously here) to the management team at eBay - intro'd Philipp Justus (pronounced you-stus NOT Justice) - focused on core.

Hint: Introducing some new 'fun' ways to interact with eBay.

User interface discussion - eBay has done good job, but bar is raising. Historically put reliability on forefront (backend) and added complexity to front-end UI. This has introduced some buyer frustrations. In 2007 going to address the UI side.

Finding
For 2yrs they have been working on a better finding system. eBay Express has different category layout (Magellan). Smart system based on wisdom of crowds, where makes sense will be testing on eBay.com over several months, monitored closely.

Another advancement, is a new search results page - AJAXy with pop-ups when hovering and with feedback on results page (good results so far) Testing across small % of buyers in US/UK/DE.

Another change that is coming is FUN. In 2007, will reassert the concept of fun. eBay Match ups for example. Showed the Fruit cat helmet vs. Meg page.

eBay Strategies

eBay ecommerce forum - Bill Cobb Keynote

Following Meg Sloan's talk on the eBay buyer, Bill Cobb took the stage after a good networking break. This is being webcast to be presented later today.

2006 recap

• Last year focused on ecommerce for first time - on and off eBay
• Announced eBay Express
  • Happy with results - 9/10 buyers said the experience met/exceeded expectations.
• EE on GMV trajectory faster than half.com and eBay Stores
  • Committed to nurturing and growing over time
• Unveiled new plan - SIS in core.
  • Led to unbalance
• Did first stab at controlling high S+H costs.
• 212m registered users (end of q306)
• Lumberton NJ - number one eBay community!
  • More ebay transactions than any other town in US in November
• Q4 - Shopping season was dominated by TMX/wii/ps3
  • This created 'eBay's finest hour' - eBay loves these scenarios
  • T+S had to do a lot to make sure that all went off without a hitch

Looking forward: 2007

• eBay's buyer traffic and conversion to sale is the big differentiator.
• Recapped the 4 segments Meg introduced
• eBay faces more competition than ever before
• Web 2.0 has changed the way people spend time online (youtube/wiki/myspace/etc.)
• eBay's success has drawn in more bad guys.

eBay Strategies

ebay buyer - post3 (final for this session)

(Post 3 of the Meg Sloan talk)

Given this information, who is NOT a great target buyer for eBay?

• buyers that see online as last resort
• don't like shopping
• want speed above all else

What kind of opportunity does focusing on these four segments leave?

• Majority of frequent shoppers
• Shopping online 160m times/month
• Buy 60m items/month
• They shop 2X more than other shoppers

(showed video of some of these segments from their on-site/in-home visits to buyers and comments)

One weird guy Chad that spends all day looking for typos to get a deal

The current eBay buyer experience (October 06 dataset referenced)

• eBay comes to mind first (good news)
  • 25% - first choice, 80% in the set of first brands to shop online
  • eBay's preference is 10 points above the next best competitor
• The brand is unique and well loved (good news)
  • 70% - eBay is among my favorite shopping sites
  • 1.3 times more likely to be considered a favorite than other online shopping sites
  • Buyers give eBay high ratings on price, selection and entertainment
  • eBay's brand dna (compared to goog/amzn) is shopping+entertainment+tech+inet.
• Buying on eBay comes with issues. (bad news)
• Some of them have significant implications (real bad news)

Why buyers love eBay?

• High ratings on price, selection and entertainment

Top buyer issues

• Entertainment/fun factor has worn off to some degree
  • Buyers that think eBay is fun bid 2x of those that don't
• Shipping/deals
  • 2/4 segments are price driven - most sensitive to this
  • Most buyer attrition is due to 'too high' shipping
  • Total price matters! (could have told you that in 2004 :) )
  • Shipping costs kills word of mouth
• Based on buyer survey here are the top bad things:
  • Item was late
  • S+H too expensive
  • Not as described
  • Seller unresponsive
• Secondary issues:
  • Never received
  • Item was damaged
  • Poorly packaged
  • Unddeserved negative feedback
  • sold as genuine, but was not

Some data was presented showing that when these bad experiences happen, the buyers leave (worst case) or start buying less/take a breather.

Who does the buyer blame? Overwhelmingly they blame the seller. Buyers want eBay to focus on:

• Shipping (sense a theme here?)
• Feedback
• Ease of use
• Safety
• Buyer/seller conflict resolution

eBay Strategies

eBay buyer - post2

What defines types of online shoppers?

Four segments:

1. Shopping driven passionates
2. Convenience driven enthusiasts
3. Price driven value finders
4. Price driven bargain seekers

Passionates:

• Shopping is in their DNA
• Younger, just completed degree or married
• Rated by eBay at 4/5 spend/yr
• High eBay affinity
• Like auctions
• Not overly price sensitive

What should seller do to attract passionates?

• Highlight brands/style
• Personality in listing
• Gifting options
• Auctions

Convenience Driven Enthusiasts

• 5/5 $/yr - very attractive
• Love shopping for convenience
• More females than males - love pets!

What can seller do for Convenience driven enthusiasts?

• Offer BIN
• Merchandise with flair for fun
• Highlight unique hard to find
• Expedited shipping

Price Driven Value Finders and Bargain Sellers

• Middle age
• Higher income
• 4/5 $/yr on spend
• Think eBay has great prices and hard to find items
• Like auctions
• Think eBay's shipping is too high
• Don't like eBay return policies

How can you draw more of these?

• Offer returns
• Highlight the "deal"
• offer detailed product info
• List auctions
• Offer free shipping or discounts

eBay Strategies

eBay ecommerce forum - Live Blog - Kick off - the eBay Buyer - Meg Sloan post1

Opening keynote: Meg Sloan, Director, Consumer Research - In-depth view of the eBay Buyer.

About Meg Sloan
Joined eBay in 2004, 12+ yrs conducting market research. Brand and loyalty research guru. Never shared this externally. Runs team of 6 folks - buyer/brand/seller/site/cust sat/buyer.

What does the Consumer Research Team do?
Research team at eBay charged with maintaining a deep understanding of the market and facilitating "ah-ha" moments of consumer insight and clarity.

• Five areas of insight:
• quantiative surveys
• focus groups
• one on one interviews
• tracking studies
• observational research

Covering lots of topics:

• marketing development
• buyer/seller studies
• site experience
• buyer/seller sat
• eBay brand equity

Research focus
2004 - brand research
2005 - seller research
2006 - Buyer research (based on seller feedback)

2006 - Know thy buyer

How do they do this? Buyer segmentation/research

eBay Strategies

eBay ecommerce forum - Live Blog update by Scot Wingo

Last night eBay treated about 250 of it's top sellers to cocktails+dinner and opening remarks by John Donahoe, President eBay Marketplaces. He started with some data on the group. The group represents over 7m items sold last year and $500m in annual GMV. The average feedback was around 42k.

Then John hit on some positives about eBay's brand and the last ten years have been great and sellers have been a great partner, etc. They are stepping up communication with sellers and appreciate all the feedback.

John previewed some of the content of the conference by talking about buyers. It's in both eBay and seller's best interest to improve the buyer experience. The topics he talked about were:

• Who is the eBay buyer and what do they want? (a talk will start at 9am about this)
• How can they improve the buyer experience?
  • Finding
  • Ease of use, flows through site
  • Fun - how can they keep eBay fun and quirky
• Feedback - how can they make this better
• Shipping and Handling - this is still a big problem when they talk to buyers

The content today is largely focused on these same areas. We have:

• eBay buyer experience - understanding the eBay buyer
• Bill Cobb keynote
• T+S - making the user experience better (the buzz is we will finally see feedback 2.0 and some more on S+H
• Leveraging SEO+shopping.com
• Top seller panels
• Understanding profitability and your eBay biz (I heard they are going to case study glacierbay as an interesting 'what did they do wrong' kind of thing)

Seller reaction has been 'wait and see' so far. We know S+H items can be painful and some sellers that have seen Feedback 2.0 (the granularization of feedback) are concerned that it will increase workload and buyer blackmailing, others see it as a net positive. One seller said that eBay has been in denial about the buyer problem so it was good to see them recognize it and admit it's a problem, but she worries that it's too late.

eBay Strategies

Online music sales doubled in 2006

Global online music sales nearly doubled in 2006 to about $2 billion, or 10 percent of all sales, but failed to compensate for an overall decline in sales of CDs, the global music industry trade body said Wednesday.

The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, or the IFPI, also said it would move to sue Internet service providers if they continued to allow identified digital music pirates — a costly scourge of the industry — to use their networks.

"We don't have the holy grail of digital (online) offsetting the decline of CDs as yet," IFPI Chairman John Kennedy said in London after the release of the group's 2007 Digital Music Report. Kennedy said overall music sales fell approximately 3 percent in 2006.

The IFPI said early last year that it expected online sales to grow enough to compensate globally for the declines that the industry has recorded over the past five years due to illegal file-sharing, piracy and competition from new media.

However, the report showed that growth in online sales has slowed compared with 2005, when sales nearly tripled to $1.1 billion from $380 million in 2004.

Kennedy said he now hoped online sales would compensate for the decline of CDs sometime this year.

"There's nearly the holy grail in three major markets — the United States, Britain and Japan. Next year I would like to be announcing that is the case for around 10 markets," he said.

Alex Zubillaga, Warner Music's executive vice president for digital strategy and business development, said that music companies in the past were too complacent, and needed to innovate in order to attract customers.

"We as an industry have had it too good for too long," Zubillaga said.

Offering additional services and products with album downloads — rather than simply lower prices — proved to boost online sales, Zubillaga said, citing Madonna's last album release. Warner issued three versions of "Confessions on a Dance Floor" — a straight release at $9.99 and two others with bonus material for $11.99 each.

"Each of the $11.99 offerings sold more than the $9.99," said Zubillaga.

In the meantime, the IFPI said it would continue to pursue illegal music downloaders through the courts.

ISPs have been harder to pursue legally than the individual downloaders the IFPI has so far targeted because they can claim they have no knowledge of any piracy occurring on their networks. However, Denmark's supreme court ruled last year that ISPs were obliged to terminate the connections of customers engaged in music piracy.

Kennedy pointed also to a British government consultation paper, which said ISPs that allow illegal music downloads and uploads would face a "legislative clampdown." The Gowers report said ISPs had until the end of 2007 to deal with illegal activity on their network.

Kennedy urged ISPs to voluntarily shut down music pirates — or face legal action.

The IFPI report predicted that online sales will account for a quarter of all sales worldwide by 2010.

Single-track downloads totaled nearly 795 million in 2006, up 89 percent on the 420 million online singles sold in 2005. The United States accounts for the bulk of those sales, with 582 million single tracks sold online in 2006, up 65 percent on 2005.

The U.K. is the world's second-largest market for online music sales, with 53 million single track downloads sold in 2006, double the number sold in 2005.

Kennedy pointed to mobile music sales as a major area for growth this year, with the launch of Apple's much anticipated iPhone and the development of music phones by Nokia Corp. and Sony Ericsson.

Yahoo News!

Skype, Kazaa founders do a Youtube

SKYPE FOUNDERS Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, who also miffed the music industry with the popular file-sharing website Kazaa, have named their latest web-telly service Joost.

Naturally, webterpreneurs feel they have to make up new words for their offerings so they can better protect them. Mind you, a quick google (vb) reveals some Joosts oot and aboot already.

Labelled a youtube-alike, the pair's hired hands reckon the video service will offer the "best of TV and the best of the internet" while remaining "piracy-proof".

Joost CEO Fredrik de Wahl, said the service would give film makers a way of distributing their wares over the web. He reckons the service will "marry" consumer desire with the industry's interests.

There's a beta version you can try out on the site here.

INQUIRER

Verizon Wireless joins SMS price increase club

Sprint Nextel started things off by increasing the amount it charges for SMS messages. Cingular dove in next and angered a lot of customers by sticking to its early termination fee despite a 50% price increase for a central service. This week Verizon Wireless announced a similar move, text messages will cost $.15 instead of $.10. This fee applies to both incoming and outgoing messages. T-Mobile remains the only national carrier to keep $.10 texting.

Verizon Wireless' price increase goes live on March 1st. Customers who subscribe to a messaging plan will not see any increase. The FAQ does not make it clear if customers who do not have a text messaging plan will be able to opt out of their contracts without having to pay an early termination fee. Sprint allowed this for a short period of time, but Cingular did not. Some Verizon Wireless customers have reported that customer service reps are offering to disable text messaging without a fee as that is the only portion of service that has had its pricing change.

The actual language in the contract seems to back up what these customers are reporting. You can read the current price change policies of Verizon Wireless, Cingular, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile below.

MobileTracker

Man's cell phone apparently sets him ablaze

VALLEJO, California (AP) -- A cell phone apparently ignited in a man's pocket and started a fire that burned his hotel room and caused severe burns over half his body, fire department officials said.

Luis Picaso, 59, was in stable condition Monday with second- and third-degree burns to his upper body, back, right arm and right leg, Vallejo Fire Department assistant chief Kurt Henke said.

Firefighters arrived at the residential hotel Saturday night to find Picaso lying on the bathroom floor after a malfunctioning cell phone in his pants pocket set fire to his nylon and polyester clothes, Henke said.

The flames spread to a plastic chair, setting off a sprinkler that held the fire in check, he said.

Authorities declined to name the phone's manufacturer and model.

The fire and water caused $75,000 damage to the room and a business on the ground floor, Henke said.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/01/15/cell.phone.fire.ap/index.html?eref=rss_tech

eBay Members Fear New Policy Will Inhibit Buyer Bids

eBay's new "Safeguarding Member IDs" (SMI) policy is coming under scrutiny from users who are concerned it will decrease bidding activity on the site. In recent days, members began noticing that when they looked at an eBay auction, they were unable to see bidder User IDs once the bidding had reached $200. Some fear eBay's new policy will have the unintended consequence of increased shill bidding by dishonest sellers, as well as decreasing bidding by buyers concerned about the lack of transparency.

Laurie Farnam, who buys and sells antique furniture on eBay, said, "No way will I get involved if I can't review a bidding history." Farnam said she has never gotten involved in eBay politics, "but I am now. I'm anxious, I'm angry."

eBay launched the SMI policy in an attempt to reduce fake "Second Chance Offers." eBay's Senior Vice President of Global Trust & Safety Rob Chesnut stated that the policy was a "significant step forward in protecting eBay's bidders, who have increasingly become targets for unwanted commercial and malicious spam, such as phishing, spoof, and fake Second Chance Offers." But eBay users like Farnam have questioned why eBay has kept the Second Chance Offer feature given its usage by scammers.

Farnam is an avid clock collector. Her most expensive eBay acquisition was a mantel clock she purchased for over $600 - "a mistake," she said laughingly. She sells some of her collection during lean times - her highest price for a clock sale was over $900. "I still miss it."

Farnam, who has studied the new information eBay provides in place of Bidder IDs, said it's not enough. "You can pick up a scent if someone that's not righteous participates in the auction. I've been burned, and you get an antenna that goes up when you've been burned."

Farnam, who joined eBay in March 2000, said she is also concerned about the message eBay is sending by applying the policy to high-value items only - the policy hides bidder IDs once bidding reaches $200. "So a $1.00 difference in price at $199 doesn't require protection from the bad guys?"

Some users are skeptical that eBay's shill-bidding detection system is adequate, and many rely on their own research to make bidding decisions.

Ken Walton, author of "Fake: Forgery, Lies, & eBay," said he believes eBay's fraud detection is more stringent than when he was selling artwork on the auction site. His book chronicles his exploits as a participant in the biggest known shill-bidding ring on eBay. Walton said masking the identities of bidders would have made it easier for him, and said, "we might have fallen under the radar." Instead, Walton and his cohorts were exposed by their eBay trading partners. Walton pled guilty to fraud in 2001.

Walton said that while ultimately the new feature may not lead to an increase in shill bidding, it will make it easier for those sellers who do use shills to escape detection.

eBay's Chesnut said in his board announcement that eBay has invested heavily in shill detection systems. "We can proactively detect and investigate possible shill bidding scenarios with a higher rate of accuracy than ever before. These backend systems collect more information on selling and bidding activity than our Community has access to, so we can detect patterns and ascertain identities much more accurately" (http://www2.ebay.com/aw/core/200701081004422.html).

eBay is hosting top sellers at its annual Ecommerce Forum this week in San Jose, where eBay North America President Bill Cobb is scheduled to webcast his keynote address in which he may reveal additional initiatives.

http://www.auctionbytes.com/cab/abn/y07/m01/i16/s01

Google And Growing Security Risks

A couple of security vulnerabilities with Google lately illustrated how serious HTML injection, cross-site scripting and cookie theft can be... when the cookie is the Google cookie. This got some of us thinking.

Let me start out by saying that I think Google's security, past and present, is very good. HTML injections are very common on many websites, but very rare on Google's server. (Plus, all of this is not a Google-specific problem; it's the problem of any future web office, or "web operating system" - nevermind who's implementing it.)

However, it starts to show that Google, by integrating more and more services on Google.com*, all able to share the same Google Account sign-in, is also exposing its users to growing risks. (The exploits mostly require us to visit a specific URL - but who really checks every Google URL they visit, only "trusting" whatever they bookmarked?) And no security team is perfect; if we'd hypothetically assume a 95% security on average web applications, and a top-notch 99.99% perfect security on Google web applications, that still leaves us with that remaining 0.01% chance people can inject code into Google to get hold of your Google cookie, and then access some of your Google data.

At this moment, much of the data Google stores for us seems trivial. Who's really using Google Docs & Spreadsheets for important data? Well, I know some of us are, but not that many yet. Also, many Google services only expose rather non-sensitive data on you in the first place; your Google Reader reading habits, or which modules you included on the personalized Google homepage, are probably nothing top secret. Some services, on the other hand, contain very private information - like Gmail, which interestingly enough was seemingly successful in providing cookie theft counter-measurements. Or your Google search history.

What I think may be more important than single security incidents though (except for their ability to educate us on the problem) is the general architecture of the "Google Office" - its potential future risks, once more of our data is contained within it, and once more of its services are cross-integrated (for example, the integration of Gmail onto the personalized homepage resulted in an additional privacy problem when someone was able to reproduce your Google Account cookie). In fact, now may be the last good time to discuss these things before the Google Office goes into production full steam.

Today, it almost seems as if every single product team in the Googleplex has the "power" to accidentally introduce a Google Account risk with an HTML injection hole, or another kind of cross-site scripting issue. An exotic Blogger bug was able to reveal your Google Docs, even if you're not blogging with Blogger - an improbable Google Base bug was able to reveal your personalized homepage, even when you've never worked with Google Base**. I would argue: these things happen, individual developers and developer teams make errors. It's impossible not to. There are ways to automatically test against HTML injections, but such tools too need to be handled by humans.

The real problem, and solution, might be on the higher level of the system architecture - the way Google integrates its services and handles cookie data. Right now, the Google Office product partly resembles a mighty convenient & long chain... a chain which is only as strong as its weakest link. Is this a trade-off we'll just have to make with future web apps, or are there ways to improve on the situation... either by users, or those building browsers, or those developing web apps?

What are your thoughts?

*For example, when you enter www.gmail.com, you'll be redirected to gmail.google.com. This way, Google is able to better cross-integrate their services; they can always access the same cookie if they want to. On a side-note, Google's architecture also often allows you to just replace the sub-domain you're on, and the application will still work; you can simply change news.google.com/news to gmail.google.com/news and still view Google News. Google's websites are very much "integrated," and they often share data: as an example, you can enable a feature that lets you view the Google Talk chat history from within Gmail. Or, you can show off your search history trends on the personalized homepage. Naturally, these features are intended to bring advantages to users, and they're all used by us voluntarily.

**This (see previous post) was at least the second XSS hole found with Google Base - I saw the full exploit posted in a by-the-way comment on Digg (while it was still unfixed), among other places -, another one dates back to 2005. Jim Ley argued, "I can't understand why Google don't have at least some security testing", but I believe you also need to consider that Google Inc needs to manage thousands of developers. Jim demanded from Google to "host the Beta on a seperate domain."

http://www.webpronews.com/blogtalk/blogtalk/wpn-58-20070116GoogleandGrowingSecurityRisks.html

NRF predicts 4.8% retail sales increase in '07

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Consumers are expected to keep their spending in check this year, leaving U.S. retail sales 4.8% higher, the slowest year-over-year gain in five years, the National Retail Federation said Tuesday.

The Washington trade association expects the economy to slow in the first half before revving up in the second half. That's the reverse of what happened in 2006, when retail sales climbed 6.3% amid an economic slowdown in the second half. That reflected slower new-home building and home resales combined with higher energy costs and tepid employment growth.

"This year, slow economic growth will be reflected in moderate consumer spending and retail-sales gains," said Rosalind Wells, NRF's chief economist. Her projections do not include sales of autos or receipts at gas stations and restaurants.

She's expecting the retail trends most prevalent in recent years -- luxury retailers doing well compared with those catering to low- and middle-income consumers - to repeat themselves this year.

Online shopping will snare even more customers, the NRF said. ComScore Media Metrix reported Tuesday that December's online spending surged 26% to a record $24.6 billion.

For the first quarter, the NRF is projecting a 3.8% gain followed by a 4.6% increase in the second quarter. That should tick up to a 5.2% rise in the third quarter and a 5.7% hike in the fourth.

The sharpest decline will show up in sales of building materials and at garden-equipment stores, owing to the housing slump and last year's pattern: Strong 20% gains at the beginning of the year plunged to minus-4.3% by the end of the year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B3CAEA672%2DE128%2D4D3C%2DB11A%2D6302F11B55E4%7D&dist=rss

Beer cooler inspired waterproof MP3

Ask those who ride the waves, and they'll tell you surfing and music are like searing sun rays and cold beverages, wet suits and wakeboards, sand and sandwiches. They just go together.

But until recently, they couldn't be used together, most electronic music players being no match for crushing, soggy waves. But Freestyle Audio is among those shooting to change that, with its signature waterproof MP3 player.

Created by electrical engineer and surfing aficionado Lance Fried in 2004, the San Diego, California-based company has partnered with leading adventure sports firms and retailers, consciously avoiding alliances with big-box retailers. Fried's aim is to create a product that is small, durable, simple and a staple for surfers, wakeboarders, snowboarders, swimmers, and anyone participating in "any type of activity that you either get wet; or sweat."

"We've gotten tons of testimonials from professional athletes and just general consumers that this little unit fits a great need in the market," said Fried. "So we are pretty stoked about it."

Weighing 35 grams and with four buttons (and no screen), the Freestyle MP3 fits snugly into most wet suits or on a small armband. Retailing nationwide at local water-sports shops (and sometimes under the guise of other brands, such as Liquid Tunes) for $150 and up, the player reportedly turns out tunes even when up to 10-feet below water. (Read about other inventors' rush to stay ahead)

Freestyle doesn't offer the only waterproof MP3 player on the market, but surfer and surf industry insider Toby Ogden says that this device's size, durability, and sound quality set it apart.

Regardless of the precise player, surfers say music is integral to their lives -- and an ideal background when they're out on the waves.

"To be able to listen to music in the water is an incredible thing," said Ryan Ragan, a pro surfer the last eight years who is sponsored by Freestyle Audio. "It really gets me amped when I'm [doing] crazy turns and just having a blast. It brought my surfing to a whole new level."

Party player

One other thing that goes with good music and good surfing: A party. Appropriately, that is where Freestyle's waterproof player was born in late 2003.

"I was actually reaching into a cooler to grab a beer, and my MP3 player slipped off my hip and fell in and fizzled," Fried recalled.

The Southern California resident's initial frustration, however, gave way to innovation.

"Living here on the beach and looking out on the surfers everyday, it dawned on me that there was a niche," he said.

With no software required, consumers can charge and install songs onto their Freestyle MP3 via their computer by plugging in their USB port and then dragging-and-dropping songs onto the external drive.

The MP3 player "can take a pretty good beating" on the waves or the slopes, according to Fried and some of his surfer friends. Julia Christian lauds the device's "super small" size and easy-to-use interface, while fellow long-time professional surfer Ryan Ragan (who is sponsored by Freestyle Audio) said he doesn't "go surfing without [the MP3 player]: It's my favorite tool."

"The unit is awesome," added Kassia Meadow, who says she thinks about surfing morning, noon and night. "It's super light, which is killer. And it fits perfectly in your wetsuit or on the little armband [and] you don't have to worry about it getting all jacked up."

javascript:cnnVideo('play','/video/bestoftv/2007/01/15/pioneers.mp3.player.cnn','2007/10/11');

Using Neighbor's Wireless Link: Probation

SINGAPORE -- A Singaporean teenager who illegally tapped into a neighbor's wireless Internet network -- an offense the city-state deems punishable by jail -- was placed on 18 months' probation by a district court Tuesday.

The court also ordered Garyl Tan Jia Luo, 17, to carry out 80 hours of community service after he admitted linking his computer to his neighbor's wireless router to access the Internet without permission.

Tan could have been jailed up to three years and fined 10,000 Singapore dollars (US$6,500).

Senior District Judge Bala Reddy cited a probation report as saying Tan had been addicted to Internet gaming at the time of the offense, adding the teenager had "few friends, if not none."

Reddy said Tan should seek "disciplined and structured psychiatric and psychological intervention" to cure his addiction.

Tan is the first Singaporean to have been prosecuted and convicted for tapping illegally into a wireless Internet network, an offense under the Computer Misuse Act, according to Tan's lawyer, Sam Koh.

A second Singaporean is currently facing 60 charges of illegally accessing wireless Internet networks.

http://www.newsday.com/technology/wire/sns-ap-internet-charges,0,1835483.story?coll=sns-ap-technology-headlines

Netflix to Be Delivered on the Internet

LOS GATOS, Calif. -- Netflix Inc. will start showing movies and TV episodes over the Internet this week, providing its subscribers with more instant gratification as the DVD-by-mail service prepares for a looming technology shift threatening its survival.

The Los Gatos-based company plans to unveil the new "Watch Now" feature Tuesday, but only a small number of its more than 6 million subscribers will get immediate access to the service, which is being offered at no additional charge.
Netflix expects to introduce the instant viewing system to about 250,000 more subscribers each week through June to ensure its computers can cope with the increased demand.

After accepting a computer applet that takes less than a minute to install, subscribers will be able to watch anywhere from six hours to 48 hours of material per month on an Internet streaming service that is supposed to prevent piracy.

The allotted viewing time will be tied to how much customers already pay for their DVD rentals. Under Netflix's most popular $17.99 monthly package, subscribers will receive 18 hours of Internet viewing time.

The company has budgeted about $40 million this year to expand its data centers and cover the licensing fees for the roughly 1,000 movies and TV shows that will be initially available for online delivery.

Netflix's DVD library, by comparison, spans more than 70,000 titles, one of the main reasons why the mail is expected to remain the preferred delivery option for most subscribers.

Another major drawback: the instant viewing system only works on personal computers and laptops equipped with a high-speed Internet connection and Microsoft Corp.'s Windows operating system. That means the movies can't be watched on cell phones, TVs or video iPods, let alone computers that run on Apple Inc.'s operating system.

Despite its limitations, the online delivery system represents a significant step for Netflix as it tries to avoid obsolescence after the Internet becomes the preferred method for piping movies into homes.

"This is a big moment for us," Netflix Chief Executive Reed Hastings as he clicked a computer mouse to quickly call up "The World's Fastest Indian" on the instant viewing service. "I have always envisioned us heading in this direction. In fact, I imagined we already would be there by now."

Besides preparing Netflix for the future, the instant viewing system also gives the company a potential weapon in its battle with Blockbuster Inc. As part of an aggressive marketing campaign, Blockbuster has been giving its online subscribers the option of bypassing the mail and returning DVDs to a store so they can obtain another movie more quickly.

Since its 1999 debut, Netflix has revolutionized movie-watching habits by melding the convenience of the Web and mail delivery with a flat-fee system that appealed to consumers weary of paying the penalties imposed by Blockbuster for late returns to its stores.

After first brushing off Netflix as a nettlesome novelty, Blockbuster has spent the past few years expanding a similar online rental service that provoked a legal spat over alleged patent infringement.

Netflix has been able to maintain its leadership so far, building so much momentum that the world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., abandoned its efforts to build an online DVD rental service in 2005.

In the last three years, Netflix has signed up nearly 5 million more subscribers to become increasingly profitable. Although Netflix won't report its 2006 earnings until later this month, analysts believe the company made about $44 million last year, up from $6.5 million in 2003.

Despite the company's growth, Netflix's stock price has dropped by more than 40 percent over the past three years, shriveling to $22.71 at the end of last week.

The erosion largely reflects investor misgivings about Netflix's long-term prospects.

Once it becomes more practical to buy and rent movies within a few minutes on high-speed Internet connections, few consumers presumably will want to wait a day or two to receive a DVD in the mail. If that happens, Netflix could go the way of the horse and buggy.

Online movie delivery already is available through services like CinemaNow, MovieFlix, Movielink, Vongo and Amazon.com Inc.'s recently launched Unbox. Apple Inc. also is emerging as major player, with hundreds of movies and TV shows on sale at its iTunes store and a new device that promises to transport media from a computer to a TV screen.

But none of those online services have caught on like Netflix's mail-delivery system, partly because movie and TV studios generally release their best material on DVDs first. The studios have had little incentive to change their ways because DVDs still generate about $16 billion of highly profitable sales.

Like already existing online delivery services, Netflix's "Watch Now" option offers a lot of "B" movies such as "Kickboxer's Tears." But the mix also includes critically acclaimed selections like "Network," "Amadeus," "Chinatown" and "The Bridge On the River Kwai."

The studios contributing to Netflix's new service include NBC Universal, Sony Pictures, MGM, 20th Century Fox, Paramount Pictures, Warner Brothers, Lion's Gate and New Line Cinema.

"We are going into this with the knowledge that consumers want to watch (media) in various ways and we want to be there for them," said Frances Manfred, a senior vice president for NBC Universal. "For now, though, we know television is the vastly preferred option."

With its eight-year-old service on the verge of mailing out its billionth DVD, Netflix has been in no rush to change the status quo either.

But Hastings realizes Internet delivery eventually will supplant DVD rentals shipped through the mail, although he thinks it will take another three to five years before technological advances and changing studio sentiment finally tip the scales.

By then, he hopes to have 20 million Netflix subscribers ready to evolve with the service.

http://www.newsday.com/technology/ats-ap_technology11jan16,0,1832964.story?coll=ny-technology-headlines

Skype Founders Unveil TV Service Details

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands -- The co-founders of the Internet telephone service Skype unveiled the brand name and details of their latest project Tuesday: a new Internet-based television service called Joost.

Entrepreneurs Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, who sold Skype for $2.6 billion to eBay Inc. in 2005, said the new project combines aspects of file-sharing software and regular broadcast television.
oost -- pronounced "juiced" -- may eventually try to move onto television sets, but it will initially focus on making it easier and more fun to watch TV on a computer.

Joost, like Skype, requires users to download free software. In this case, the program will help them browse the Internet for channels and clips they're interested in, rather than make phone calls.

"We're currently in a test phase with a limited 'beta' release, so we have content matching our base," Chief Executive Fredrik de Wahl said in a telephone interview. "Comedy, sports, music, documentaries."

He said the company has deals with Warner Music, "Bridezillas" producer September Films and "Big Brother" creator Endemol NV, among others, but plans to make content deals globally as the service grows.

Joost is owned by Luxembourg-based TVP Holdings SA, but it has offices in New York, London and Leiden, Netherlands, and expects to incorporate under the Joost name.

The Joost browser will be open for other software developers to create their own features. "They may be able to make interactive plug-ins we can't even think of," de Wahl said.

The service will be ad-supported, but advertising will be briefer and less frequent than on regular TV. Viewers will have a broader selection of programming and will be able to watch whenever they want.

Daiwa Securities telecom analyst James Enck said that Joost's biggest challenge will be competition it faces from a host of rival products and services, but with Zennstrom and Friis behind it, it has to be seen as a serious player.

"I would be tempted to back them as people who will do well," Enck said.

Zennstrom and Friis succeeded under similar circumstances with Skype, and earlier built and sold the file-sharing program Kazaa.

"History suggests, they introduced two of the most revolutionary -- disruptive -- products in the history of the Internet, and the most viral. Possibly this is a hat trick," Enck said.

Enck, who has tested Joost, said that at the moment, so-so video quality was a potential problem. But overall, the product is noteworthy for "ease of use, a nice interface, and intuitive design" he said. The same ingredients played a key role in Skype's success.

CEO de Wahl said that unlike the original Kazaa, Joost will be seeking to work with content owners to prevent piracy. He said he hoped telecommunications companies wouldn't see it as a potential threat the way that Skype is.

Many telecoms hope to sell services streaming video onto television sets using the technology known as IPTV, or Internet Protocol TV.

Joost faces stiff competition from many other corners. The Internet is already crowded with free online channels, file sharing programs like BitTorrent, and video download services such as Google Inc.'s YouTube.

And then there's plain old television, and devices that piggyback off of it like VCRs, digital video recorders such as TiVo or more recently, gadgets like Slingbox that send TV shows elsewhere.

Friis said that Joost was the logical successor to Kazaa and Skype.

"Peer-to-peer technology is perfect for delivering broadcast in a very scalable way on the Internet," Friis said in a videotaped interview on the company's Web site.

Translation: Joost's users will contribute some of their bandwidth to sharing video streams at the same time they download them for viewing, making it possible for the company to broadcast to a large audience from just a few computer servers distributed around the world.

The company is accepting applications for a limited number of people who want to try out the service, and said it intends to "rapidly expand." It did not set a date for an official product launch.

Friis said the pair began building the company under the code name "The Venice Project" immediately after selling Skype and it now has around 150 employees.

http://www.newsday.com/technology/wire/sns-ap-netherlands-internet-television,0,4754870.story

Google Has 'Ambitious Plans' to Improve Google Base in New Year

An Associate Product Manager posting on the Official Google Base blog on Friday said that the company has ambitious plans to make Base even better for providers and searchers in 2007. He listed four items on the company's agenda:

• Helping you format and describe your items better so they're easier for searchers to find on Google
• Providing more data about your items with expanded stats and reporting
• Improving the bulk upload creation process with better error messages, faster processing times, and more options to give us data
• Making it easier to develop applications and mashups with the Base API

Google Base includes online merchants' catalog feeds as well as diverse offerings such as job listings and recipes. Google Base items have a chance of showing up on search results pages on Froogle, Google Maps and on the main Google web search pages. The service turned one year old in November.

http://googlebase.blogspot.com/2007/01/big-plans-for-2007.html

Wall Street Divided Over eBay's Q4 results

In the last week as the dust has settled on Q4, an interesting divide has started to become apparent amongst the Wall St. analysts that follow eBay. I spent some time this weekend reading most of the preview reports and it seems the main area where the firms differ in their viewpoint is not on the listing counts which they all admit were not as robust as they hoped (anywhere from 5-15% below expectations), but in the revenue generated from those listings.

The mid-point of eBay's transaction revenue guidance is $1.052b and this is the part Wall St. is watching very closely. Of course the performance of PayPal and Skype will play a factor, but all eyes are on the core business and it's corresponding revenue.

This is oddly similar to the 2004 Q4 season when signs of eBay's slowing first came to light when Q4 results failed to delight and the company's stock was hit very hard and hasn't really recovered since. Given the significance of that historical data point, I thought it would be useful to readers to dig into this because as a seller, you have "hitched your wagon" to the eBay star, so understanding how the financial world looks at the company can be important.

The Bulls would argue that while the listings were a little light, due to improved conversions and ASPs, eBay's revenue/listing will be significantly higher thus making up for any gap from listing revenues and potentially generating net positive results ahead of expectations.

Bears don't see it that way. they argue that in order to cover the listings miss, eBay needs to have increased revenue/listing 5-10%. Revenue per listing has been trending down since Q104 so this seems unlikely.

In the Bull camp, you have a sampling:

• Justin Post (Merrill) - BUY - listings good, $20-30m upside
• Bob Peck (Bear Stearns) - Outperform - $33 price target - Listings at 646m met target.
• Imran Kahn (JP Morgan) - overweight - Listings targets were met.

In the Bear camp, you have:

• Jeetil Patel (DB) - HOLD - $29 target - 640m listings in Q4, represents 10% y/y core growth. GMV growth at 14% y/y for the Q is below the 18% they wanted to see. The UK has slowed and DE is not growing at all.
• Safa Rashtchy (Piper Jaffray) - Under perform - $25 target. Listings 10% below expectations, 07/08 too aggressive, need to come down. Q4 revenue miss of $33-53m possible.

I have to admit to being somewhere in the middle. Amongst eBay's largest sellers, this was a great holiday season. We definitely saw a stronger y/y listing increase than the aggregate numbers are showing and that was due to definitely increased conversions during Q4. On ASPS, we saw an increase there, but it's due to the mix of goods sold not due to consumers willing to pay more. This is an important distinction. It's assumed when someone says that ASPs on eBay are up, that sellers+Wall St. frequently view this as an indication that buyers are willing to may for goods. That's not the case and as long as I've been following eBay, prices have been on the decline for like goods year over year. So when ASPs are going up, what we see happening is a mix shift of goods. For example, if you have 50% of GMV from the video game ($20 ASP) and 50% GMV from the golf category ($120 ASP), and that switches to 25%/75%, the ASP will move up significantly. This mix change happens within the total ebay world at a Macro level and even at a micro-level (the individual seller level). We frequently see sellers abandon lower price items because the amount of work and small margins on a < $20 item are no longer worth the hassle on eBay. Thus those sellers tend to only put on eBay items over $20. This moves the ASP up, but it's not necessarily a positive for eBay because the selection of the good < $20 items has been degraded.

In any case, I think eBay still has a tough road ahead. In 07 it will become apparent that eBay Express isn't solving any problems, Skype is not going to be generating high-margin dollars any day soon, Europe is slowing and Asia is pretty much done. eBay has two places to turn for growth: core US/Europe and acquisitions. I don't think the markets would look favorably on another big acquisition (e.g. facebook for $Xb), so that leaves really one option. A healthy eBay core is good for the entire market so I'm actually viewing that eBay is being somewhat forced to address core's issues as a long-term positive. The biggest risks are:

a. Is it fixable?
b. Can it be fixed quickly
c. Will eBay make the hard decisions that it takes to fix core?

We'll know the answer to the Q4 question on Jan 24th when eBay reports.

What do you think eBay Strategies' readers - will eBay come out of Q4 with a 20-50m beat on revenue or 20-50m miss? Are the core issues fixable and will eBay do what it takes to make the changes? This is your time to make your 2007 predictions.

Note: Due to the high rate of comment spam, I had to turn on comment approval, it may take 24-48hrs for your comment to appear now, but I will get to it and only filter out irrelevant spam.

http://ebaystrategies.blogs.com/ebay_strategies/2007/01/wall_street_div.html